Arzel
June 18th, 2003, 10:49 PM
Move Me Up is one of the larger sites out there, and is still actively cycling people off of its lists, but that does not save it from future problems.
Site MoveMeUp.com
Started: No later than January of 2002
Lists: 33 Active (Unknown number of closed lists)
Average List Length: 10.8 Slots
Average Number of Members per List*: 78.5
*Some lists include Autocycle spots for future Autocycle pools
Average Time to Cycle one slot off a list for one list: 25.7 Days (95%CI 18.3 - 33.1 Days)
Weighted* Average Time to Cycle one slot off a list for one list: 10.9 Days (95%CI 9.5 - 12.2 Days)
*Weighted to give extra benefit to fast moving lists.
Another way to look at the previous statistics is that it would take approx 25.7 days to cycle every list one time (some might cycle more than once), or it would take approx 10.9 days to cycle 33 people total (some list might not cycle, some would cycle more than once).
Average Time to Cycle complete list: 3.11 Years (95%CI 2.46 - 3.77 Years)
Weighted Average Time to Cycle complete list: 2.5 Years (95%CI 1.35 - 3.65 Years)
So what does this mean.. On average I am 95% positive that given the current state of affairs, a new buy will have to wait between 1.35 and 3.65 Years to cycle.
Move Me Up does have some fast moving lists creating a wide variance, but there are still a lot of other people on some slow moving lists and they are going to start complaining when they realize that they will never cycle.
Final notes: Their autocycle idea, while interesting, does not change the fact that they are using money from future customers to fund the autocycle pots, how will they ever cycle? Plus most of the autocycle pots are set at the end of current list, and they will probably not cycle themselves for at least a year, so that autocycle money will be long in coming.
Do to the fact that Move Me Up is still cycling people they will probably be stable for some time, but I predict some of the lists are going to crash within 4 to 6 months as only 4 lists look to have any chance of cycling within one year, and a majority are currently 2+ years out.
Site MoveMeUp.com
Started: No later than January of 2002
Lists: 33 Active (Unknown number of closed lists)
Average List Length: 10.8 Slots
Average Number of Members per List*: 78.5
*Some lists include Autocycle spots for future Autocycle pools
Average Time to Cycle one slot off a list for one list: 25.7 Days (95%CI 18.3 - 33.1 Days)
Weighted* Average Time to Cycle one slot off a list for one list: 10.9 Days (95%CI 9.5 - 12.2 Days)
*Weighted to give extra benefit to fast moving lists.
Another way to look at the previous statistics is that it would take approx 25.7 days to cycle every list one time (some might cycle more than once), or it would take approx 10.9 days to cycle 33 people total (some list might not cycle, some would cycle more than once).
Average Time to Cycle complete list: 3.11 Years (95%CI 2.46 - 3.77 Years)
Weighted Average Time to Cycle complete list: 2.5 Years (95%CI 1.35 - 3.65 Years)
So what does this mean.. On average I am 95% positive that given the current state of affairs, a new buy will have to wait between 1.35 and 3.65 Years to cycle.
Move Me Up does have some fast moving lists creating a wide variance, but there are still a lot of other people on some slow moving lists and they are going to start complaining when they realize that they will never cycle.
Final notes: Their autocycle idea, while interesting, does not change the fact that they are using money from future customers to fund the autocycle pots, how will they ever cycle? Plus most of the autocycle pots are set at the end of current list, and they will probably not cycle themselves for at least a year, so that autocycle money will be long in coming.
Do to the fact that Move Me Up is still cycling people they will probably be stable for some time, but I predict some of the lists are going to crash within 4 to 6 months as only 4 lists look to have any chance of cycling within one year, and a majority are currently 2+ years out.