PIPS - a Pie in the sky?

[ycchen]

http://www.asic.gov.au/asic/ASIC_PUB.NSF/print/05-60+Is+'PIPS'+(People+in+Profit+System)+a+Pie+in+th e+Sky%3F?opendocument

Media and information releases

05-60 Is 'PIPS' (People in Profit System) a Pie in the Sky?

Thursday 17 March 2005

In recent weeks, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has received inquiries and complaints about promotions for a wealth creation scheme called PIPS or People in Profit System.

PIPS website asserts that members can design their own individual wealth creation plan. As an example, it is represented that returns of at least 2% every trading day can be earned from one particular 'wealth creation' option. That's more than 14,000% each year if compounded daily over 252 trading days. At that rate, if you put in $1,000, you would have $21,601,632 in just two years.

'Not surprisingly, PIPS has already received several nominations for ASIC's 2005 'Pie in the sky' awards,' ASIC's Executive Director of Consumer Protection, Mr Greg Tanzer said.

Apparently based offshore, PIPS is promoted over the internet and in face to face meetings arranged by local agents. Information received by ASIC suggests that PIPS has recently become active in Australia.

'As result of public inquiries and complaints, ASIC has already begun inquiries into this scheme, and we invite anyone who has information about its Australian promoters to come forward and assist us. Just email us at infoline@asic.gov.au or call 1300 300 630,' Mr Tanzer said.

'If you want to invest money, deal with licensed Australian financial services businesses. That way, you have far more protection if anything goes wrong.'

End of release

[sisco50]

Very old and meaningless news. But thanks for posting anyway. :)

[sisco50]

Maybe somewhat old but seemingly meaningful news. :)


"This is a much updated version of my original post - updates in blue.

Okay I am so fed up with all the negative posts on the forum. I am surprised that so little “facts” are presented in the discussions that are going on, and so much opinionated views are raised.
In this post I will try to proof that PIPS is real and not a Ponzi.
I will first look at how Ponzis operate and then compare this to how Pips operates. I will run the "Ponzi simulator". In all of this I will try to present as much facts about Pips as possible to come to my conclusion.
It will take a while so please get a drink and sit back…


How a Ponzi works

First of all let’s define what a Ponzi is: a Ponzi is a scheme where members are being paid out from money that other members pay in when they join the scheme. Ponzi schemes work for as long as there is more money coming in than going out. When more money start to go out than comes in the operators normally closes down the scheme as this is the point when they achieve maximum profit.

99% of all HYIP programs on the internet are Ponzis – this is why people have such a hard time to believe that Pips is real. Ponzis normally have the following characteristics:

They operate anonymously: everything is done via the web and email, you can not phone people, let alone visit them in an office. They have normally built a great defence that prevents you from ever finding out who runs the scheme.

They will give you a referral bonus of X% to stimulate you to bring new people into the system, as they need an ever increasing feed of new members in order to survive.

When growth is slowing down they often try to boost new member signup by announcing that “they will go private by such and such date and you have to join before this date otherwise you will miss out”. (Recent examples of this are FLO and HYIP-PRO)

They often claim to get into technical problems which prevents them from paying members. (DDoS attacks on their website, their database gets hacked, etc)

Finally they collapse. Normally the website disappears all of a sudden. Sometimes they leave the website up so you can still join but simple stop paying (Golden Nestegg scenario). Sometime they want you to believe that they will come back, this buys them time to erase any traces that may be there (FLO scenario). Yes I have learned by mistake!

There are hundres of Ponzis out there. Most Ponzis collapse within 3 to 6 months. If a Ponzi is very popular they will manage to survive up to a year. It is very unlikely that any Ponzi will last longer than a year.


How PIPS works

PIPS is in many ways different from Ponzis.

First of all: PIPS is not anonymous at all. They have real phone lines, real offices where you can go and visit the staff. Bryan travels all around the world to meet members. Each year they host a big convention.

PIPS does not have a referral program. Yes it is true that you used to get $10 per month for signing up a new member but this is hardly a real stimulus to recruit. This is why I was so glad that they stopped paying this referral bonus – it helps to prove that they do not rely on new members.
Pips has had its share of problems – but they have overcome these in time. They do deliver what they promise, although sometimes it might take a bit longer than we would like to see. The following post on the forum from speedymaster illustrates this very well:

Quote:
PIPS is different from others , it is indeed fulfill promises !!! Here is some example that I can remember:

Problem: Pips and Picpay website was inaccessible, late ROL aka ROI for more than a week. sometime in August, September
Promise: New server, data center
Fulfill: A close to milion$ worth New Oracle server purchased around October, Some glitches but Keith, Tay, Yap , Nazir and others ITS installed patchs.

Problem: Hackers, massive CC , exchanger frauds, some time around Sept, Oct
Damages: Millions $ loss, CC processor closured, Brian angry.
Promise: PIPs remain open, better security, new CC account
Fulfill: Manually verified all transactions put fraudulence members banned and KIV, Established new CC safebuy, Picpay eliminate PIN emailed, eliminated exchangers and Brian lets PIPs alive until today,

Problem: the new CC safebuy requirement does not accept major CC worldwide, make it useless to pips.
Promise: find other CC processor
Fulfill: We have new CC processor about 2 weeks ago.

Problem: Limited amount WD on DC
Promise: Brian said will increase limit speedywallet
Fulfill: Replace it with New DC allowing greater limit, they FEDEX it to you

Problem: Attacked by holidays (muslim, hindus, Christmas, New Years, Chinese newyear)
Damages: Backlog paper works
Promises: Shift crew 24 hours.
Fulfill: Thank you Rina, Malar, Shalomi and others I saw you online helping members during night time Malaysia. Most back log now completed and transferred to the bank.

Problem: Administrative problems with HSBC and no longer support PIPS
Promise: Alter to temporary bank, finding, opening new bank accounts
Fulfill: EON bank as a back up bank. The new bank was introduced recently.

Problem: WT, Cheque, DC WD slowww
Promise: Transfer batch from EON to the new bank gradually.
Fulfill: I received Dec 03 WT from The New Bank 3 days ago. many other members received too. Current speed rate is about 2 day WD per day.

Problem: Forum attacked by trojan, early Mar
Damage: I got the virus.
Promise: upgrade forum
Fulfill: Asked Azlina what she and ITS did last Mar 11,.. Forum Upgraded.

Promise: Charity service
Fulfill: Mature PIP units get into charity fund , Isabella foundation, PIPSAID.com

Promise: Pips restaurant
Fulfill: Pips Bistro opening last Nov

Promise: Pips member will be the owner of properties
Fulfill: PIPSREALTY.COM

Promise: Multi billion dollar business
Fulfill: Pipspremier of Australia, produces, KidsBible, Animated movies
Just had convention in Anaheim last Feb. Even the Zondevan Bible Publisher keep eye on it.

Promise: Pips own a Bank
Fulfill: Fulfillment in progress.....about 90days from now.


PIPS was started 16 February 2004 as a follow up from the Clones. When the Clones system collapsed Bryan gave 11,000 members a starting position in PIPS out of his own pocket that matched the position they had in the Clones. Do you think that a Ponzi scheme would ever do this? (Thanks to Force-10 for this bit of information)

PIPS is still around after one year. The critics will now say that PIPS did not pay for months, but the ultimate proof will deliver itself when the backlog is processed and things go back to normal in a few months time.

Another things to consider: PIPS donated $500,000 to the Isabellamina Foundation to start their project, and donates a further $250,000 per month. Which Ponzi scheme would do this?

PS: on this website you can see the history before PIPS: This makes very interesting reading on the Matrix system, The Clones etc.
http://web.archive.org/web/*/pureinvestor.com



The Ponzi simulator test

I have built what I call “ the Ponzi simulator”: an Excel spreadsheet that replicates the workings of a Ponzi scheme. In order to be able to simulate this you need to know the following parameters:
- how many people join the scheme
- how much money do people pay in
- how much money do people take out.

With this information it is easy to determine if a system is a Ponzi and when it will collapse.

The problem is that there is no reliable data available for Pips, but we can make some educated guesses.

Number of people in PIPS

There is no accurate data on this but the number of new members on the forum in each month should give a good indication of the growth of PIPS (you can find this when you look at member profiles and sort on join date):

New foum members per month (fact)

2004
mar 1510
apr 669
may 612
june 625
july 848
aug 1099
sept 1440
oct 2222
nov 2263
dec 1765
2005
jan 1454
feb 988
mar 1486

This in itself is interesting reading, you can see how many people came in from the clones and how the growth accelerated until all the problems hit end november resulting in a decline of the growth. This month with many positive developments happening sees an increase in the growth again.

Begin October there were some post on the forum that there were 150,000 PIPS accounts. If we assume that this number was achieved end September then using the forum members signups we get the following amount of PIPS accounts (numbers at the end of the month):

Number of PIPS accounts at the end of the month (guesstimate)

2004
feb 15,000
mar 28,000
apr 42,000
may 58,000
june 75,320
july 94,017
aug 118,249
sept 150,000
oct 198,993
nov 248,890
dec 287,807
2005
jan 319,866
feb 341,651
mar 374,416

In Hawaii Bryan told members that PIPS now has 192,000 members from 42 countries – rumours on the forum are that there are around 400,000 accounts. It thus seems that the above estimates are reasonably accurate.

How much money do people invest in PIPS

Again, difficult to get reliable data on this. I found a poll on the Dutch forum asking how much people had invested that had the following results:
$450-$1000: 22%
$1000 - $2500 – 21%
$2500 or more: 57%

Based on this let’s play it safe and assume that the average amount invested is $2000, in reality it is probably higher. (It actually does not matter at all what amount we start with as far as the simulation is concerned)

How much money do people take out of PIPS

Well this is impossible to guess. I could not find any polls on this on the forum but it seems that a lot of people reinvest 100% for a few months then move to 70% reinvested.
I will do the Ponzi test following 5 different scenarios (see details below).

The results

Scenario 1: Reinvest 100% for 1 months then go to 50%
This scenario sees money going out of the system right from the start.
The result is that in May 2004 they start making a loss and in June they are bankrupt.

Scenario 2: Reinvest 100% for 3 months then go to reinvest 50%
The result is that in June 2004 they start making a loss and in July they are bankrupt.

Scenario 3: Reinvest 100% for 4 months then go to reinvest 70%
The result is that in July they start making a loss and in August they are bankrupt.

Scenario 4: Reinvest 100% for 3 months, then next month reinvest 0% (take out your principle), then reinvest 100% for 2 months, then go to 70%
The result is that in May 2004 they start making a loss and in July they are bankrupt.

Scenario 5: Reinvest 100% for 6 months, then go to reinvest 70%
The result is that in September 2004 they start making a loss and in October they are bankrupt.


Scenario 6: Poll results
Last week I asked in a poll how long members reinvest at 100% before they start to withdraw money. The results were as follows:

1-2 months: 1.8%
3 months: 4.8%
4 months: 3%
5 months: 4.8%
6 months: 32.3%
7 months: 7.8%
8 months: 9.6%
9 months: 4.2 %
10 or 11 months: 8.4%
12 months or longer: 23.4 %

I put this in the ponzi simulator and assumed that after X months at 100% the account is put on 60% reinvest.
The result is that in September they start making a loss. If the is put on 70% reinvest the result is the same. This is probably as close to the reality as I can get without having access to the Pips database


Note 1: In these calculations I have treated the 11,000 members from the Clones just as every other new member, so assumed they also reinvest X months at 100%. As most of them will have been in the Clones for a while it is very likely that they will start withdrawing money much sooner than new members so in practise Pips would make a loss earlier if it was a Ponzi.

Note 2: The 2% program was started in May 2003, so almost a year before the start of PIPS as we know it today. As I do not have enough data on that period I did not start the calculation from that point in time, but it makes it even more obvious that PIPS is real.


Conclusion:
If PIPS was a Ponzi then they would stop the program the moment they started making a loss. In that case they would have closed down in September the latest.PIPS was happily paying up until November so I can only come to one conclusion: PIPS is not a Ponzi.


So if PIPS is not a Ponzi then how do they make their money?

This is the million dollar question! (quite literally ) and I do not know the answer. It is true that PIPS has many different companies (real estate, fashion, franchise for bar & restaurant) but the truth is that most starting companies take a few years to make a profit. I do agree with Bryan’s strategy to start these businesses but I do not think they are the secret to PIPS success.

Bryan has repeatedly stated that they do not need to make 2% per day as our investment (loan) is only 40% of the invested funds. PIPS add 60% of their own funds in the total pool of money that is invested.

Also Bryan has stated that they trade with a 12:1 margin. What this means is this:
Basically the stock brokers allow PIPS to purchace $12000 in stocks for $1000 allowing them to make 12x as much as they invest example:
One share of a stock costs $100 so with $1000 you can buy 10 shares and for every dollar that stock moves they earn or lose $10, now when that same stock is purchaced on margin for that same $1000 PIP can buy 120 shares and for every dollar that stock moves they earn or lose $120 (with thanks to jaws810 for the explanation).

So these bits together mean that if you start with $600 from Pips and $400 from the members, and you trade at a 12:1 margin you only need to make 0.2% per day (that is 4% per month) to be able to pay 2% to the members. Something that is very achieveable!

How and where Pips exactly trades in unknown, but I personally think that the recent post from Djabe on the forum is not far from the mark:

Quote:
PIPS will be around until a worldly currency disaster occurrs. I strongly believe that from the educated knowlege I have aquired. Keep in mind, People fear what they do not understand. And since people don't know the big picture, they are left with disbelief. I don't think that we are meant to unredstand all with PIPS on how it fully works, that is a risk you take. But I believe in it because of some knowlege I have gained prior to PIPS on how to make money very fast. (you need a lot of money, you need to know someone to get in, you need to be accepted to participate, and it's been going on for decades controlled by the federal reserve and privately operated by banks) That is all I am allowed to say, but the big players of the world have been cashing in on this for years. I think that Bryan was introduced to this club and has created a company that shares the profits with you, b/c he needs your money to participate in it. It is a long kept secret and leaves you all wondering how he does it. Hence, creates disbelief. I have never seen a milloin dollars (US), but that doesn't mean that it doesn't exist. I don't know how a car engine works exactly, but I do have experience of my car working for me. Sometimes it breaks down (I don't always know why) but I trust the car people to fix it. Even though I am without a car for a while, it does get fixed and then I am off driving again.
good fortunes to all who have patience, and remember... it is best to put only an amount you can afford to loose into PIPS, or anything else in life for that matter. nothing is forever...



Conclusion
I have demonstrated that PIPS operates very different from Ponzi schemes.
I have calculated that if PIPS was a Ponzi it would have been closed in July 2004 the latest.
PIPS is still here, PIPS is paying, PIPS is real. Enjoy the ride."


The above quote is not a solicitation nor a testamony for the program. It is just to prove a point regarding surfing the web and finding things to cut and paste. :)

[concerned]

Funny how there is absolutely no blue in your post. Also, how can ycchen's post be old news if it was released 3 weeks ago? Oh, maybe because you always knew it was a scheme and that some government agency would be investigating it. That must be why it is old news to you.

[MatrixWatch]

I am looking at those reasons give above and I don't see anything very convicing.

For example, Sisco said that:

Another thing to consider: PIPS donated $500,000 to the Isabellamina Foundation to start their project, and donates a further $250,000 per month. Which Ponzi scheme would do this?

Who cares? What if some ponzi scam out there donated $1 million dollars to charity tomorrow? Would that all of a sudden make it a legitmate program?

Here is one of the indicators that Sisco gives for knowing if something is a ponzi:

They operate anonymously: everything is done via the web and email, you can not phone people, let alone visit them in an office. They have normally built a great defence that prevents you from ever finding out who runs the scheme.

Again, who cares? If you think about it, MatrixWatch.org is run relatively anonymously, and you would not be able to come and visit us in some office. Are we a ponzi scheme? What do you do when a ponzi scheme is run out an office and you can call them or go down and visit them? Is it no longer a ponzi?

Surely, we must be referring to more than just this when we talk about ponzis.

And we are.

When we talk about ponzis and pyramids we are talking about a promotional scheme that has the following combined elements:

1. It offers to pay large dividends for a small up-front "investment"

2. It pays off earlier investors soley, or in large part, with the money invested by later investors

3. It usually offers no product in exchange for payment, although another blend of ponzi, the "pyramid scheme" does offer a product in exchange.

4. Early investors have a much better chance at being rewarded than later ones do, yet the scheme will use early investors as their "poster children" to prove that the schem works.

5. The scheme eventually freezes when time period becomes too long for new investors to receive their incentive reward. These customers are the ones who usually band together and take the whole scheme down. This phenomenon is usually referred to as the point when the scheme "collapses".


All of these elements combined defines a ponzi. Notice though, that you could stop at the first point and begin to call the stock market, or social security, a ponzi scheme. If you investigate these systems more closely though you will see that it doesn't have the other traits that ponzis do. Furthermore, shareholders of a stock have more legal backing and protection than participants in a ponzi/pyramid scam do.

[tcb1969a]

I think the only reason a company that is operating a ponzi scheme would donate money to charity, is that they are hoping that if they are taken to court someday for running an illegal ponzi scheme, then the courts might be gentler on them cause they donated money to a worthy cause.....If that makes any sense.......

[concerned]

They operate anonymously: everything is done via the web and email, you can not phone people, let alone visit them in an office. They have normally built a great defence that prevents you from ever finding out who runs the scheme.

WOW!!!

That must explain it all then. They all operate on the web and email. That must be the definition of a ponzi scheme then. There is only one thing I am curious about. How did Charles Ponzi do the original ponz scheme. The internet wasn't around in 1920. There weren't even computers at that time. It wasn't till much later, during the Clinton Administration in the 1990's I believe that the internet was invented by a Mr. Al Gore.:D

All joking aside, I would like to know how Charles Ponzi did it? According to Sisco's definition, he couldn't have done it because he didn't operate anonymously, didn't do it via the web or email, and he actually did it from a physical office where people could actually see him. I guess it is a mystery how the internet existed in 1920 then dissapeared, and then came back later after the computer was invented.

[concerned]

Oh by the way, I did a google search on the Isabellamina Foundation, and it seems quite strange that the only hits that I get all have the word PIPS associated with it. If it was a real charity, don't you think there would be other information about this charity on the web, such as what they do?

[sisco50]

Funny how there is absolutely no blue in your post. Also, how can ycchen's post be old news if it was released 3 weeks ago? Oh, maybe because you always knew it was a scheme and that some government agency would be investigating it. That must be why it is old news to you.

Yes, three weeks is very old news in that areana. Things happen and change on a daily basis.

BTW That post was not at all about the content. If you read to the bottom of the post you will find the explanation for the "cut & past". Did any of you read that far before jumping in with both feet? :)

[sisco50]

WOW!!!

That must explain it all then. They all operate on the web and email. That must be the definition of a ponzi scheme then. There is only one thing I am curious about. How did Charles Ponzi do the original ponz scheme. The internet wasn't around in 1920. There weren't even computers at that time. It wasn't till much later, during the Clinton Administration in the 1990's I believe that the internet was invented by a Mr. Al Gore.:D

All joking aside, I would like to know how Charles Ponzi did it? According to Sisco's definition, he couldn't have done it because he didn't operate anonymously, didn't do it via the web or email, and he actually did it from a physical office where people could actually see him. I guess it is a mystery how the internet existed in 1920 then dissapeared, and then came back later after the computer was invented.

Not sisco's definition at all. It would seem that every one of you totally missed the point of that long cut and paste. Or you never arrived at the bottom of the post? lol Sorry Not meaning to confuse anyone here. :)

[sisco50]

Oh by the way, I did a google search on the Isabellamina Foundation, and it seems quite strange that the only hits that I get all have the word PIPS associated with it. If it was a real charity, don't you think there would be other information about this charity on the web, such as what they do?

Very possible that there is not very much info on that charity out there. I had read in the PIPS forum that the Isabellamina Foundation was a small charity that was working in a small area of Malaysia. Something to do with school books and such for local schools. I do not have any other info on that subject and have no interest in researching it. Sorry

[Arzel]

The heat is beginnig to come down on PIPS.

Some recent news over at scam.com http://www.scam.com/showthread.php?p=41152#post41152

[69mike]

Sisco seems to know his PIPS.

ycchen seems to know how to find ways of making things look like a scam or ponzi.

kewl.... lol

coca cola scam or ponzi...anyone? ycchen? lol

gotta love these posts...


69mike

[Pips believer]

Post removed by moderator, Please do not spam the same post to multiple threads. You have the same exact post on six threads now, so the extras have been deleted.

[ycchen]

Maybe somewhat old but seemingly meaningful news. :)


"This is a much updated version of my original post - updates in blue.

Okay I am so fed up with all the negative posts on the forum. I am surprised that so little “facts” are presented in the discussions that are going on, and so much opinionated views are raised.
In this post I will try to proof that PIPS is real and not a Ponzi.
I will first look at how Ponzis operate and then compare this to how Pips operates. I will run the "Ponzi simulator". In all of this I will try to present as much facts about Pips as possible to come to my conclusion.
It will take a while so please get a drink and sit back…


How a Ponzi works

First of all let’s define what a Ponzi is: a Ponzi is a scheme where members are being paid out from money that other members pay in when they join the scheme. Ponzi schemes work for as long as there is more money coming in than going out. When more money start to go out than comes in the operators normally closes down the scheme as this is the point when they achieve maximum profit.

99% of all HYIP programs on the internet are Ponzis – this is why people have such a hard time to believe that Pips is real. Ponzis normally have the following characteristics:

They operate anonymously: everything is done via the web and email, you can not phone people, let alone visit them in an office. They have normally built a great defence that prevents you from ever finding out who runs the scheme.

They will give you a referral bonus of X% to stimulate you to bring new people into the system, as they need an ever increasing feed of new members in order to survive.

When growth is slowing down they often try to boost new member signup by announcing that “they will go private by such and such date and you have to join before this date otherwise you will miss out”. (Recent examples of this are FLO and HYIP-PRO)

They often claim to get into technical problems which prevents them from paying members. (DDoS attacks on their website, their database gets hacked, etc)

Finally they collapse. Normally the website disappears all of a sudden. Sometimes they leave the website up so you can still join but simple stop paying (Golden Nestegg scenario). Sometime they want you to believe that they will come back, this buys them time to erase any traces that may be there (FLO scenario). Yes I have learned by mistake!

There are hundres of Ponzis out there. Most Ponzis collapse within 3 to 6 months. If a Ponzi is very popular they will manage to survive up to a year. It is very unlikely that any Ponzi will last longer than a year.


How PIPS works

PIPS is in many ways different from Ponzis.

First of all: PIPS is not anonymous at all. They have real phone lines, real offices where you can go and visit the staff. Bryan travels all around the world to meet members. Each year they host a big convention.

PIPS does not have a referral program. Yes it is true that you used to get $10 per month for signing up a new member but this is hardly a real stimulus to recruit. This is why I was so glad that they stopped paying this referral bonus – it helps to prove that they do not rely on new members.
Pips has had its share of problems – but they have overcome these in time. They do deliver what they promise, although sometimes it might take a bit longer than we would like to see. The following post on the forum from speedymaster illustrates this very well:

Quote:
PIPS is different from others , it is indeed fulfill promises !!! Here is some example that I can remember:

Problem: Pips and Picpay website was inaccessible, late ROL aka ROI for more than a week. sometime in August, September
Promise: New server, data center
Fulfill: A close to milion$ worth New Oracle server purchased around October, Some glitches but Keith, Tay, Yap , Nazir and others ITS installed patchs.

Problem: Hackers, massive CC , exchanger frauds, some time around Sept, Oct
Damages: Millions $ loss, CC processor closured, Brian angry.
Promise: PIPs remain open, better security, new CC account
Fulfill: Manually verified all transactions put fraudulence members banned and KIV, Established new CC safebuy, Picpay eliminate PIN emailed, eliminated exchangers and Brian lets PIPs alive until today,

Problem: the new CC safebuy requirement does not accept major CC worldwide, make it useless to pips.
Promise: find other CC processor
Fulfill: We have new CC processor about 2 weeks ago.

Problem: Limited amount WD on DC
Promise: Brian said will increase limit speedywallet
Fulfill: Replace it with New DC allowing greater limit, they FEDEX it to you

Problem: Attacked by holidays (muslim, hindus, Christmas, New Years, Chinese newyear)
Damages: Backlog paper works
Promises: Shift crew 24 hours.
Fulfill: Thank you Rina, Malar, Shalomi and others I saw you online helping members during night time Malaysia. Most back log now completed and transferred to the bank.

Problem: Administrative problems with HSBC and no longer support PIPS
Promise: Alter to temporary bank, finding, opening new bank accounts
Fulfill: EON bank as a back up bank. The new bank was introduced recently.

Problem: WT, Cheque, DC WD slowww
Promise: Transfer batch from EON to the new bank gradually.
Fulfill: I received Dec 03 WT from The New Bank 3 days ago. many other members received too. Current speed rate is about 2 day WD per day.

Problem: Forum attacked by trojan, early Mar
Damage: I got the virus.
Promise: upgrade forum
Fulfill: Asked Azlina what she and ITS did last Mar 11,.. Forum Upgraded.

Promise: Charity service
Fulfill: Mature PIP units get into charity fund , Isabella foundation, PIPSAID.com

Promise: Pips restaurant
Fulfill: Pips Bistro opening last Nov

Promise: Pips member will be the owner of properties
Fulfill: PIPSREALTY.COM

Promise: Multi billion dollar business
Fulfill: Pipspremier of Australia, produces, KidsBible, Animated movies
Just had convention in Anaheim last Feb. Even the Zondevan Bible Publisher keep eye on it.

Promise: Pips own a Bank
Fulfill: Fulfillment in progress.....about 90days from now.


PIPS was started 16 February 2004 as a follow up from the Clones. When the Clones system collapsed Bryan gave 11,000 members a starting position in PIPS out of his own pocket that matched the position they had in the Clones. Do you think that a Ponzi scheme would ever do this? (Thanks to Force-10 for this bit of information)

PIPS is still around after one year. The critics will now say that PIPS did not pay for months, but the ultimate proof will deliver itself when the backlog is processed and things go back to normal in a few months time.

Another things to consider: PIPS donated $500,000 to the Isabellamina Foundation to start their project, and donates a further $250,000 per month. Which Ponzi scheme would do this?

PS: on this website you can see the history before PIPS: This makes very interesting reading on the Matrix system, The Clones etc.
http://web.archive.org/web/*/pureinvestor.com



The Ponzi simulator test

I have built what I call “ the Ponzi simulator”: an Excel spreadsheet that replicates the workings of a Ponzi scheme. In order to be able to simulate this you need to know the following parameters:
- how many people join the scheme
- how much money do people pay in
- how much money do people take out.

With this information it is easy to determine if a system is a Ponzi and when it will collapse.

The problem is that there is no reliable data available for Pips, but we can make some educated guesses.

Number of people in PIPS

There is no accurate data on this but the number of new members on the forum in each month should give a good indication of the growth of PIPS (you can find this when you look at member profiles and sort on join date):

New foum members per month (fact)

2004
mar 1510
apr 669
may 612
june 625
july 848
aug 1099
sept 1440
oct 2222
nov 2263
dec 1765
2005
jan 1454
feb 988
mar 1486

This in itself is interesting reading, you can see how many people came in from the clones and how the growth accelerated until all the problems hit end november resulting in a decline of the growth. This month with many positive developments happening sees an increase in the growth again.

Begin October there were some post on the forum that there were 150,000 PIPS accounts. If we assume that this number was achieved end September then using the forum members signups we get the following amount of PIPS accounts (numbers at the end of the month):

Number of PIPS accounts at the end of the month (guesstimate)

2004
feb 15,000
mar 28,000
apr 42,000
may 58,000
june 75,320
july 94,017
aug 118,249
sept 150,000
oct 198,993
nov 248,890
dec 287,807
2005
jan 319,866
feb 341,651
mar 374,416

In Hawaii Bryan told members that PIPS now has 192,000 members from 42 countries – rumours on the forum are that there are around 400,000 accounts. It thus seems that the above estimates are reasonably accurate.

How much money do people invest in PIPS

Again, difficult to get reliable data on this. I found a poll on the Dutch forum asking how much people had invested that had the following results:
$450-$1000: 22%
$1000 - $2500 – 21%
$2500 or more: 57%

Based on this let’s play it safe and assume that the average amount invested is $2000, in reality it is probably higher. (It actually does not matter at all what amount we start with as far as the simulation is concerned)

How much money do people take out of PIPS

Well this is impossible to guess. I could not find any polls on this on the forum but it seems that a lot of people reinvest 100% for a few months then move to 70% reinvested.
I will do the Ponzi test following 5 different scenarios (see details below).

The results

Scenario 1: Reinvest 100% for 1 months then go to 50%
This scenario sees money going out of the system right from the start.
The result is that in May 2004 they start making a loss and in June they are bankrupt.

Scenario 2: Reinvest 100% for 3 months then go to reinvest 50%
The result is that in June 2004 they start making a loss and in July they are bankrupt.

Scenario 3: Reinvest 100% for 4 months then go to reinvest 70%
The result is that in July they start making a loss and in August they are bankrupt.

Scenario 4: Reinvest 100% for 3 months, then next month reinvest 0% (take out your principle), then reinvest 100% for 2 months, then go to 70%
The result is that in May 2004 they start making a loss and in July they are bankrupt.

Scenario 5: Reinvest 100% for 6 months, then go to reinvest 70%
The result is that in September 2004 they start making a loss and in October they are bankrupt.


Scenario 6: Poll results
Last week I asked in a poll how long members reinvest at 100% before they start to withdraw money. The results were as follows:

1-2 months: 1.8%
3 months: 4.8%
4 months: 3%
5 months: 4.8%
6 months: 32.3%
7 months: 7.8%
8 months: 9.6%
9 months: 4.2 %
10 or 11 months: 8.4%
12 months or longer: 23.4 %

I put this in the ponzi simulator and assumed that after X months at 100% the account is put on 60% reinvest.
The result is that in September they start making a loss. If the is put on 70% reinvest the result is the same. This is probably as close to the reality as I can get without having access to the Pips database


Note 1: In these calculations I have treated the 11,000 members from the Clones just as every other new member, so assumed they also reinvest X months at 100%. As most of them will have been in the Clones for a while it is very likely that they will start withdrawing money much sooner than new members so in practise Pips would make a loss earlier if it was a Ponzi.

Note 2: The 2% program was started in May 2003, so almost a year before the start of PIPS as we know it today. As I do not have enough data on that period I did not start the calculation from that point in time, but it makes it even more obvious that PIPS is real.


Conclusion:
If PIPS was a Ponzi then they would stop the program the moment they started making a loss. In that case they would have closed down in September the latest.PIPS was happily paying up until November so I can only come to one conclusion: PIPS is not a Ponzi.


So if PIPS is not a Ponzi then how do they make their money?

This is the million dollar question! (quite literally ) and I do not know the answer. It is true that PIPS has many different companies (real estate, fashion, franchise for bar & restaurant) but the truth is that most starting companies take a few years to make a profit. I do agree with Bryan’s strategy to start these businesses but I do not think they are the secret to PIPS success.

Bryan has repeatedly stated that they do not need to make 2% per day as our investment (loan) is only 40% of the invested funds. PIPS add 60% of their own funds in the total pool of money that is invested.

Also Bryan has stated that they trade with a 12:1 margin. What this means is this:
Basically the stock brokers allow PIPS to purchace $12000 in stocks for $1000 allowing them to make 12x as much as they invest example:
One share of a stock costs $100 so with $1000 you can buy 10 shares and for every dollar that stock moves they earn or lose $10, now when that same stock is purchaced on margin for that same $1000 PIP can buy 120 shares and for every dollar that stock moves they earn or lose $120 (with thanks to jaws810 for the explanation).

So these bits together mean that if you start with $600 from Pips and $400 from the members, and you trade at a 12:1 margin you only need to make 0.2% per day (that is 4% per month) to be able to pay 2% to the members. Something that is very achieveable!

How and where Pips exactly trades in unknown, but I personally think that the recent post from Djabe on the forum is not far from the mark:

Quote:
PIPS will be around until a worldly currency disaster occurrs. I strongly believe that from the educated knowlege I have aquired. Keep in mind, People fear what they do not understand. And since people don't know the big picture, they are left with disbelief. I don't think that we are meant to unredstand all with PIPS on how it fully works, that is a risk you take. But I believe in it because of some knowlege I have gained prior to PIPS on how to make money very fast. (you need a lot of money, you need to know someone to get in, you need to be accepted to participate, and it's been going on for decades controlled by the federal reserve and privately operated by banks) That is all I am allowed to say, but the big players of the world have been cashing in on this for years. I think that Bryan was introduced to this club and has created a company that shares the profits with you, b/c he needs your money to participate in it. It is a long kept secret and leaves you all wondering how he does it. Hence, creates disbelief. I have never seen a milloin dollars (US), but that doesn't mean that it doesn't exist. I don't know how a car engine works exactly, but I do have experience of my car working for me. Sometimes it breaks down (I don't always know why) but I trust the car people to fix it. Even though I am without a car for a while, it does get fixed and then I am off driving again.
good fortunes to all who have patience, and remember... it is best to put only an amount you can afford to loose into PIPS, or anything else in life for that matter. nothing is forever...



Conclusion
I have demonstrated that PIPS operates very different from Ponzi schemes.
I have calculated that if PIPS was a Ponzi it would have been closed in July 2004 the latest.
PIPS is still here, PIPS is paying, PIPS is real. Enjoy the ride."


The above quote is not a solicitation nor a testamony for the program. It is just to prove a point regarding surfing the web and finding things to cut and paste. :)
I just love the phrase -- Enjoy the ride. sisco50, thanks for taking time to prove that PIPS is not a ponzi because it has some unknown income somewhere.... ;)

Back in Nov. 2004, I had already reminded you to withdraw ASAP, yet, you want to wait until Feb. 2005. Then, of cause you chose (I don't think you have a choice) to continue "enjoy the ride".

So, when is your new timeline to withdraw your profit? ;)

[sisco50]

ycchen

If you will look at the last two sentences of that long post, you will see the following:

"The above quote is not a solicitation nor a testamony for the program. It is just to prove a point regarding surfing the web and finding things to cut and paste."

Yes, just a point to prove that any moron, including myself, can cut and paste misinformation from anywhere on the net at any time. You have just now proven that once again. :) Do you even have an idea of who wrote that "Cut and Paste" and where I found it? Ofcourse not. You missed the whole point of why it was found and posted here to start with. :)

" just love the phrase -- Enjoy the ride. sisco50, thanks for taking time to prove that PIPS is not a ponzi because it has some unknown income somewhere.... "

lol Further proof that you have missed the boat. Read my lips. I DID NOT WRITE THAT POST NOR DID I COMPILE THE INFO PRESENTED. I did a quick search and and then did a "cut and paste" to show you how easy it is to aquire misinformation and spread it around. Are you getting any of this yet? You may want to take off those blinders and do some re-reading. :)

Please try not to worry too much about my money. I spend it as I see fit and I am not worried about it so why would you be concerned? :)

[ycchen]

ycchen

If you will look at the last two sentences of that long post, you will see the following:

"The above quote is not a solicitation nor a testamony for the program. It is just to prove a point regarding surfing the web and finding things to cut and paste."

Yes, just a point to prove that any moron, including myself, can cut and paste misinformation from anywhere on the net at any time. You have just now proven that once again. :) Do you even have an idea of who wrote that "Cut and Paste" and where I found it? Ofcourse not. You missed the whole point of why it was found and posted here to start with. :)

" just love the phrase -- Enjoy the ride. sisco50, thanks for taking time to prove that PIPS is not a ponzi because it has some unknown income somewhere.... "

lol Further proof that you have missed the boat. Read my lips. I DID NOT WRITE THAT POST NOR DID I COMPILE THE INFO PRESENTED. I did a quick search and and then did a "cut and paste" to show you how easy it is to aquire misinformation and spread it around. Are you getting any of this yet? You may want to take off those blinders and do some re-reading. :)

Please try not to worry too much about my money. I spend it as I see fit and I am not worried about it so why would you be concerned? :)

lol.. I wonder if I have ever quoted someone without a clearly stated "source of information"? If you don't do that, how could anyone know that is a quote or your own opinion or you agree with your quote? Most important of all, are you saying that you DISAGREE with what you quote above? lol.

Most people has a clear purpose when they cut and paste a piece of information to this forum, so what is your purpose? Just to hide behind other people words so you can look more more "neutral"? You are really something too. :)

I hope for once you take a stand on something. People who have a stand always win respect even though we might disagree with each other.

[sisco50]

Ycchen

Whatever...since you are always right about everything, I guess no more conversation is needed. :)

Fact of the matter is that the cut and paste content in my post has no bearing on anything except to prove a point about people gathering info and bringing it here as gospel. I personally did not even read that whole cut and paste as it was totally irrelavant to the point I was making. You still don't have a clue, do you? :(

[ycchen]

As usual, a complete waste of time talking to you. Let's stop this nonsense before we bore everyone. :)

ADD: Of cause, I know exactly what you are trying to do here on matrixwatch. I am not stupid to let you diverse the attention from a substantive discussion to a problem of "cut and paste". This is NOT a forum for you to post rubbish that you don't even read, or pretend not to agree or disagree ... lol

[sisco50]

As usual, a complete waste of time talking to you. Let's stop this nonsense before we bore everyone. :)

ADD: Of cause, I know exactly what you are trying to do here on matrixwatch. I am not stupid to let you diverse the attention from a substantive discussion to a problem of "cut and paste". This is NOT a forum for you to post rubbish that you don't even read, or pretend not to agree or disagree ... lol

Personally, I wouldn't tell anyone that talking to them was a waste of time. I learn from all people that I speak with generally. The fact that you can't grasp a simple concept is not nonesense and is probably not boring anyone here but you. To keep you from accusing me of diverting attention, I will gladly withdraw as that is not my intention at all. Let's keep in mind that I did not bring up that old cut and paste in the first place. You did. :)

As far as this forum not being a place to post rubbish, I whole heartedly agree! :) Was that not the point I was trying to make when we went through that whole scenario some time back? Once again you have shown me that you haven't a clue.

[ycchen]

The above quote is not a solicitation nor a testamony for the program. It is just to prove a point regarding surfing the web and finding things to cut and paste. :)

Sure you did not bring up the cut and past. You are really something, sisco50. lol.

Fact of the matter is that the cut and paste content in my post has no bearing on anything except to prove a point about people gathering info and bringing it here as gospel. I personally did not even read that whole cut and paste as it was totally irrelavant to the point I was making. You still don't have a clue, do you?

So what's your point of posting a rubbish that you don't evey read? :shake:

[sisco50]

Sure you did not bring up the cut and past. You are really something, sisco50. lol.



So what's your point of posting a rubbish that you don't evey read? :shake:

lol So you still don't have a clue even after I repeated it several times in several posts. Right over your head once again. No matter as I will drop the subject for fear of being accused of something or other again. How utterly sad that the resident guru can't grasp a simple concept when presented but knows all about everything. :(

[Arzel]

Sisco50,

Maybe you should restate you concept rather than blame others for not knowing what you are trying to say.

[sisco50]

Sisco50,

Maybe you should restate you concept rather than blame others for not knowing what you are trying to say.

Maybe I shouldn't. I have already stated it quite often and the person I am talking to chooses to ignore the issue. I know this because no one can be that clueless. Especially someone that has been here a long time. :) No matter as I will withdraw from this topic before being told I am hijacking the thread. :)

[ycchen]

Maybe I shouldn't. I have already stated it quite often and the person I am talking to chooses to ignore the issue. I know this because no one can be that clueless. Especially someone that has been here a long time. :) No matter as I will withdraw from this topic before being told I am hijacking the thread. :)

I don't think anyone knows what you are talking about because you always "pretend" that you do not have a stand. lol

You have already successfully hijacted the thread anyways. ;)

[sisco50]

I don't think anyone knows what you are talking about because you always "pretend" that you do not have a stand. lol

You have already successfully hijacted the thread anyways. ;)

Thank you for spreading more misinformation. :) Misinformation can consist of blatent lies as well. If you were the mindreader that you pretend to be, you would no longer be clueless. :)

Thanks for letting me know that I have hijacked the thread. I guess I am not the only one that states the obvious here. lol