Claims of outside money sources

[Dreamer]

Ok, I'm not doubting that there might be outside moneys coming in. But, when you say its a ponzi, they say all the outside streams coming in. Well, do your own math here folks:

http://www.workathomenetwork.com/ymmss-commission-and-cycle-time-history.htm

First some quick numbers (2 monitors pay off here):

4/11/05
Monies paid out: $84million
Date Cycling: 10/14

10/14/04
Monies paid out: $34million
Cost to double: $68million
Cost-admin: $91million

1/26/05
Date with $68million paid out.

So, if this was a true ponzi, alot more people would have been paid. We are approximately 3 months behind on payments if outside sources just equaled what kim is taking out, and the cycle time would only be at about 140 days.

So, using these quick numbers, kim has taken $23million from the pot, and put back 7million. Yep, hes honest and ethical.

Disregarding the 25% (since some money is coming in), we can see that since it didnt take 91million dollars that he is not keeping the whole 25%. 16/23 * 25%) = about 17%.

85million / .83 * 17% = about 17million. 23,000 * $10 = about 17.25million kim has taken for himself.

So, 100million probably went into the pot (about). $17million + outside streams went into kims sweaty hands. That brings it down to about $85million. (numbers dont add up cuz i'm rounding them for simplicity)

Now, $50million was the money that was put in, so 100-50-17 = $33million "profit" that the early birds got at the expense of people who havent seen a dime.

[Arzel]

There is no doubt that Kim is making a tidy profit off this scam, but I think the numbers are a little hard to figure out.

The total payout of $91 million counts reinvestment into the system.

Example.

John Doe has a position payout $640, but he reinvests $320 back into the system keeping $320. Jane has a position payout $640, but she reinvests the whole amount back into 2 $320 positions. Plus Clan Doe (50 members strong with 50 $80 positions) all cycle to reinvest to $160)

YMMSS reports $5,280 as paid out, but the actual amount paid out is $320. Their logic is that the money was paid and then the new positions purchased at the same time, but the actual money never went anywhere.

That may be a simple example, but there is no doubt that a certain percentage of each pay is reinvestment back into the system. They even make note that they (the members) should reinvest part of their return back into the system to help with cycle times.

Now here is the interesting part. Kim keeps his percentage off every pay, even those that are just repurcashes off a cycle. So while I do not think the $100 million has gone into the system (probably closer to half that amount, maybe a little less) the early bird have probably netted less (in total) than Kim (although I think that YMMSS probably owes him money as well, which would be quite ironic :) ).

Good post though, I hadn't thought of it in this way before.

[Dreamer]

The moneys going into the system is higly overrated than the 100million that i suggested, but the $17million + that kim has taken out is very accurate (with a quick look at numbers)

I think most people go from $10 - $320, but of course there are people that might have purchased $320s at the start to get the reaccuring right away. Since the math has always been wait 5 cycles to get rich, I think most people were buying at $10 levels to outweigh those purching $320s. Of course, there are so many positions in the system since october 18th that havent cycled yet. So, instead of the $10-$640 scenario, I think a $10 - $80 with $40 withdrawel might be more accurate.

So, $10+$20+$40+$80 = $150. Actual payout is only $40, which is about 25%. So, about $25million was probably actually paid out and $17million went into kims sweety palms. That sounds about right. So, thats about $43million that went into the system, and that sounds about the speculation that people have suggested...maybe a little on the high end though.

Are there any good nubmer crunchers that might be able to make any sence of the data available on the link i provided? Maybe figure out how much money might be reinvested, or anything at all?

[surfer]

Without hard data telling us the percentages of
matured $160 and $320 EPCs versus the $10,
$20, $40, $80, and $160 EPCs, it's very difficult
to figure exactly how much Kim is raking in.

We all know that the commissions paid amount
is extremely over inflated to help hype the biz
opp.

If there were equal amounts of every EPC value
in the matrix, it would take about 46% of real
money to total the commissions paid amounts
that are stated.

Let's pretend there are 100 of each dollar amount
of EPC due to cycle.

To cycle 100 $10 EPCs to $20, you only need
$515. $500 in fees go to Kim and members
see their $10 turn magically into $20, also
getting 2 more posting credits.

To cycle 100 $20 EPCs to $40, you need to
start with $1030. Kim gets $1000, member
gets 4 more posting credits and their $20 is
magically $40.

100 $40 EPCs to $80, start with $2060. Kim
gets $2000.

100 $80 EPCs to $160, start with $4120. Kim
gets $4000.

100 $160 EPCs to $320, start with $8240 of
which $8000 goes to Kim.

So far, actual cash brought in is around $15965
with Kim getting $15500, members $0, and the
commissions paid reads $62000.

Now we finally get to 100 matured $320 EPCs
that are set to recurring income. For these
to pay out the $320 and repurchase another
$320 EPC, you need to start with $40,240.00,
of which Kim gets $8000 and members get
paid $32,000 and still have a $320 EPC that
falls back to the bottom of the matrix until
it works its way back up again.

Totals from this example.
Commissions paid = $126,000.00
Real money brought in = $56,205.00
Kim gets $23,500.00 or around 40% of real
revenue.
Members get $32,000.00 or around 60% of real
revenue.
Real revenue equals about 45% of stated commissions
paid amount.

I think most of us believe that the majority of
positions in the matrix are not matured EPCs,
so let's just add in 100 each of $40s, $80s, and
$160s due to cycle.

With that mixture, the stats would be.
Commissions paid = $182,000.00
Actual revenue = $70,205.00
Kim gets $37,500.00 or better than 50%
of actual revenue.
Members get the same $32,000.00
Real revenue = about 39% of commissions
paid.

So the greater number of smaller positions,
the less real revenue that actually
has to be generated and Kim gets to keep
the vast majority of it.

The increased cycle times just show that
more and more positions are becoming
matured $320 positions, which in turn
means that more real revenue
needs to be brought in to actually pay
people.

I think we may be going different routes
to come to the same conclusion.

Although I'm figuring YMMSS has actually
brought in between $30-$35 million with
Kim getting around 1/2 and the other 1/2
being split between 6000-7000 earlier
members.

Normally, that would indicate an average
"spend" of about $1250 from 24,000 members,
but since many early members continue to
give Kim much of their money back, it seems
to skew things a bit.

[sisco50]

"There is no doubt that Kim is making a tidy profit off this scam, but I think the numbers are a little hard to figure out.

The total payout of $91 million counts reinvestment into the system."


Yes, probably a tidy profit! :( Might I ask why three different posters spent a lot of time trying to guess the exact figures as there is not enough factual/accurate data available in order to do the math? Seems like a waste of time as the actual number means nothing more than just a speculative number does. Anyones ballpark figure is as good as anyone else's ballpark figure here I would think. :)

[surfer]

Might I ask why three different posters spent a lot of time trying to guess the exact figures as there is not enough factual/accurate data available in order to do the math?

Occasional bouts of boredom, LOL. Gives me
something to doodle while eating. ;)

I know the info I post is just to give people
a better idea on the real numbers for
payouts as opposed to YMMSS inflated
statistics.

Not exact, but a hell of a lot closer to the
truth.

[Arzel]

Occasional bouts of boredom, LOL. Gives me
something to doodle while eating. ;)

I know the info I post is just to give people
a better idea on the real numbers for
payouts as opposed to YMMSS inflated
statistics.

Not exact, but a hell of a lot closer to the
truth.

:)

You have that straight!

[Dreamer]

I know its its just speculation, and anybody s guess is as good (or maybe in my case) as bad as anybody elses. The reason why I would like to see if I can make head of tails of the numbers is to try to figure out a reinvestment rate. I dont know the numbers of members everyday anymore. But, if we can some how, thru a good guestamate, the percentage of money reinvested we can see what will really happen.

As it stands right now, at least 50% of the moneys should be put back into the system and 50% of the money withdrawn, assuming when it gets to $640. Now, if its alot less than 50% than that means people are pulling their money out, and if they are pulling their money out, its safe to assume the collapse is ineviatable.

wait...nevermind...boredom. thats rights.

[sisco50]

LOL Yes, I thought so! :) Boredom is the primary culprit. :)

[Dreamer]

Ok, here is something that I haven't seen really discussed. Just some basic numbers:

Current Cycle time: 191 days
Date currently cycling: 10/18/2004
Money paid towards cycle (about): 1.2million
Total to pay off 10/18 (about): 1.8million
Left to pay off: .6million

Dividing the days payouts over the days, here are the numbers i get:
4/16 82
4/17 82
4/18 82
4/19 135
4/20 135
4/21 97
4/22 97
4/23 104
4/24 104
4/25 104
4/26 96
4/27 96

Now if the system was strong, the numbers should increase everyday. So, those days where $135k was paid out, if 100% goes back into the system, than that should be paid out again. Now, thats unrealistic though, but if there was a steady new amount of $75k/day plus reinvestment, the money should gradually go upwards. Anyways, it looks like it is going downwards. But, thats not the point of this boring post.

Lets assume that on average $100k/day gets paid out per day. Im sure we can run numbers to find that to probably be about accurate. So, the cycle will go up to 197 days before 10/18 is cycled off.

197 days.

What will it take to lose 1 day tomorrow. 1 awsome day? Well, got to make 600k to pay off 10/18. 1.5million to cover 10/19. So, thats 2.1million in one day.

Now, the largest payday looks to be 12/02 at about 1million. So, there has to be over 2x the maximum interest ever in the program to happen tomorrow, or there has to be a 2000% interest of outside sources over the interest of members. How do you pitch that? Yes, our members have so much faith in this program that the 23,000 of them put in $100,000 per day total, but we want you to put in 2million so the cycle decreases by one day.

[Arzel]

@Dreamer,

Good point. I think we can all agree that the members are not going to be putting in that kind of money. Even if every member were to buy a single $10 EPC that would only pump about $175,000 into the system, not nearly enough to even maintain cycle times. Every member would have to put in over $100 to decrease cycle times by one day!

You can really tell that they are pushing the daily or weekly purchases. The primary cycle time focus is not on the days but filling in your cycle so you have every day covered (thus keeping those regular purchases coming in). But as we can see that just isn't happening.

Give me a V! Give me an I! Give me Vitamins! Yes, vitamins are one of the outside revenue streams coming into YMMSS. Today's afternoon call named B12 as a vitamin that everyone needs and is just one of the many outside revenue streams to be coming into YMMSS in the near future. I am thinking that they would have to sell a ton of vitamins to add any significant income to the commision payable account, but this made me think about YMMSS in a different light.

I have been wondering what these outside sources of advertising revenue would be for some time now. They currently have the Wal-Mart banners and other click throughs on their site (I think they have brought in a couple thousand dollars, pretty much insignificant for the most part), but there is a definite trend here.

I believe that the primary advertisers they get will be the same ones which fill up your email with worthless spam. Regardless of what advertisers they get, the members would have to spend more per person than they are getting in return per person in advertising revenue (because YMMSS is a closed system).

So pretty soon the members will feel presure to start buying a bunch of worthless crap to "help" the system which is quickly falling apart. Unless things improve dramatically it looks like cycle times will increase another 150 to 300 days before the 11.18.2004 date is reached (10.18.2004 is still going after 11 days of processing and 11.18.2004 is still 30 days away!).

[Dreamer]

There was alot of boat activity being talked about this past couple of weeks. But, as a new prospective member, let me crunch some more numbers.

Current payout $85million.
15% gets taken out by admin (not 25% since 10% gets thrown back in somehow).
$100million still needs to be bought in before my 10epc will double.

On average 100k is spent per day. My cycle time will be about 3 years. Thats a far cry of $100,000 a year. If I could double my money in 3 years you bet i would do it. But, whats the guarantee?

I just wonder if I will even remember to check my position in 3 years to see if it doubled. What if I forget to withdraw it and it recycles? Im not sure if I will even be alive the second cycle.