Arzel
July 17th, 2005, 01:57 AM
Time value of money. Anyone familiar with YMMSS has heard that phrase a number of times since the new payment system was introduced, but what is that really going to mean?
Kim, and several of the moderators state that someone that has been waiting 270 days will recieve more per week (initially at least) than someone waiting only 7 days. In this case it would be about 38 times more (because of the time value of money.) I think Kim used an example that was 20 times, but regardless of what it is, you run into a problem that most people probably have not really thought about.
The current historical trend for the CPA has been less than $500,000 a week, and doesn't look to increase anytime soon, so I will use that as a basis.
Positions are pretty evenly distributed, and although the actual distribution is not completely known we can deduce that they have either remained flat or risen at a small rate over the 270 past days. If they had been increasing at am exponential rate, or even just a moderately increasing rate cycle times would not have increased as they did. Additionally most of the newer purchases were most likely not 320, so not to be put into the fund initially. Meaning that there are probably more old 320's than there are new 320's.
To keep it simple I will just assume they are flat. Because purchase rates have remained close to flat (based of CPA amounts) the average weekly pay will be very close to what someone that had a 130 day wait. Using the 5,000,000 positions listed by kim divided by 32 we get the average 32 share of $3.20 ($3.09 is mentioned by many to be the expected weekly pay per 32 epc.)
So using an average of $3.20 for a person with a 130 day wait you get the starting point for calculating the "time value of money". 130 days is used because it is roughly (270-7)/2 to get the current midpoint. Using this midpoint you get a max of $6 per week for a 270 day wait "OLD 320EPC" and $0.17 a week for a week old "NEW 320EPC". $6 is almost 39 times greater than $0.17 and 270 is almost 39 times greater than 7.
But that doesn't make a lot of sense logically. $0.17 is not a lot of money per week, and I doubt that most members would be very happy with that. At the same time someone waiting 9 months may not be very happy with $6 a week when they missed getting $320 by only a few days. The only way the new system will be accepted is if the weekly pay is a little higher on the small end, and those waiting a long time are probably expected something along the lines of $20 or more minimum.
Unfortunately there is going to be a limited amount of money available for the CPA. That is just not going to change, there are no big amounts being touted, and the retail side isn't even up and running yet, so the only real source of income is additional membership EPC purchases. My numbers are probably off a little bit, but using the information provided by Kim they can't be too far off. So don't get your hopes up too high on the whole "time value of money" talk. I expect the upper end to only be 4 or 5 times the lower end at most, unless those new positions are devalued a lot.
Kim, and several of the moderators state that someone that has been waiting 270 days will recieve more per week (initially at least) than someone waiting only 7 days. In this case it would be about 38 times more (because of the time value of money.) I think Kim used an example that was 20 times, but regardless of what it is, you run into a problem that most people probably have not really thought about.
The current historical trend for the CPA has been less than $500,000 a week, and doesn't look to increase anytime soon, so I will use that as a basis.
Positions are pretty evenly distributed, and although the actual distribution is not completely known we can deduce that they have either remained flat or risen at a small rate over the 270 past days. If they had been increasing at am exponential rate, or even just a moderately increasing rate cycle times would not have increased as they did. Additionally most of the newer purchases were most likely not 320, so not to be put into the fund initially. Meaning that there are probably more old 320's than there are new 320's.
To keep it simple I will just assume they are flat. Because purchase rates have remained close to flat (based of CPA amounts) the average weekly pay will be very close to what someone that had a 130 day wait. Using the 5,000,000 positions listed by kim divided by 32 we get the average 32 share of $3.20 ($3.09 is mentioned by many to be the expected weekly pay per 32 epc.)
So using an average of $3.20 for a person with a 130 day wait you get the starting point for calculating the "time value of money". 130 days is used because it is roughly (270-7)/2 to get the current midpoint. Using this midpoint you get a max of $6 per week for a 270 day wait "OLD 320EPC" and $0.17 a week for a week old "NEW 320EPC". $6 is almost 39 times greater than $0.17 and 270 is almost 39 times greater than 7.
But that doesn't make a lot of sense logically. $0.17 is not a lot of money per week, and I doubt that most members would be very happy with that. At the same time someone waiting 9 months may not be very happy with $6 a week when they missed getting $320 by only a few days. The only way the new system will be accepted is if the weekly pay is a little higher on the small end, and those waiting a long time are probably expected something along the lines of $20 or more minimum.
Unfortunately there is going to be a limited amount of money available for the CPA. That is just not going to change, there are no big amounts being touted, and the retail side isn't even up and running yet, so the only real source of income is additional membership EPC purchases. My numbers are probably off a little bit, but using the information provided by Kim they can't be too far off. So don't get your hopes up too high on the whole "time value of money" talk. I expect the upper end to only be 4 or 5 times the lower end at most, unless those new positions are devalued a lot.