Waiting period at Gotmatrix: Statistics Report

[ycchen]

Greg, read the attached statistics and tell me if I am wrong. I am more than happy to correct it if I make any mistake. Thanks.



EDIT: Please download the file 4 messages below

[damion]

Maybe you should repost it with American fonts?
I get a message stating that I need chinese language fonts...

Damion

[ycchen]

Sorry about that. I have changed the font. Let me know if you can read it this time. Thanks.


EDIT: Since this report is the very similar to the report below. I shall delete this one. Please go to the one 2 message below for a more COMPLETE version of the report. Thanks.

[ycchen]

Let me use this REAL case to explain why NO one should invest in Gotmatrix long or stagnant lists as shown in the attached file. The reason I contrast two scenerio (Fixed X'mas' Signup Rate vs. Declining Post-X'mas Signup Rate) is to show why any money that throw into established sites like Gotmatrix will end up as a permanent helper = at least 4 years to get their 'free electronics'.

Consider the waiting period of Sony PS2

Fixed X'mas (optimistic) signup rate
4.7 years (current last signup)
5.2 years
5.7 years
6.2 years
6.7 years (last signup 4 months later)

Declining Post-X'mas (realistic) signup rate
4.7 years (current last signup)
5.2 years
8.7 years
13.5 years
18.5 years (last signup 4 months later)

Even IF PS2 can maintain its optimistic X'mas signup rate of 47/month into the next 4 months, the wait period for the last signup will continue to increase from 4.7 years (current) to 6.7 years (last signup after 4 months)!

What IF PS2 signup rate decline after X'mas? The waiting period fo the last signup will increase from 4.7 years (current) to 18.5 years (last signup up after 4 months)!

Whether we believe in optimistic scenerio (owners' version) or more realistic scenerio, the conclusion is the same. No matrix-sites will survive more than 1 year! So, whether your wait period is 4.7 years, 6.7 years or 18.5 years. They all mean the same! E.I. you won't get your free electronics! This is what I called "PERMANENT HELPER"! (Or DONOR to feed the owner & cycled the oldies).

So Greg, do you think I am lying and make you look bad? Please correct me if you think I am lying ...:)

Frankly speaking, I am more generous than most anti-matrix people to even consider an 'optimistic sceneio'. In reality, the future will look much worst than the 'realistic scenerio'. We will see.

[ycchen]

Okay. I add another coloum on "Permanent Helper" to the "Waiting Period" file. I like to hear comments from Greg and any other owner/ex-owner. Thanks.

ONE BIG QUESTION to ALL OWNERS:
How do matrix resolve the problem of PERMANENT HELPER that REMAIN at 80-98% AT ANY GIVEN TIME. In addition, the absolute numbers of permanent helpers actually INCREASE over time.

I apologize to those who know all these already. Since we have Greg on the forum, I really like to see how he response to this BIG question based on his own matrix statistics.

[MatrixWatch]

Yc,
This PDF has a very professional look! I'm impressed!

[ycchen]

Thanks. I hope Greg will spend a few minutes to take a look at the file and see how he can answer the BIG question. I hope he can go beyond (the statistics is not true) arguement because any one can do this simple algebra based on the SAME set of data and comes up with same result. This is what we call "scientific" research :D i.e. the result can be test and retest as many times as you want.

Unless Gotmatrix's database online is not accurate, or else, we should definitely go beyond (lying, not true, wrong) arguements and deal with the BIG question.

Of course, if there are mistakes, I hope he can specify the mistakes, so that corrections can be made.

[MatrixWatch]

YC,
Exactly what is the question you are wanting Greg to answer?

[ycchen]

Okay, let make it simple.

QUESTION 1: How will he explain to the latest signups on the PS2 list (or any other list) that s/he has to wait for AT LEAST 4.7 years to get their free gift?

(That is based on a very optimistic CONSTANT signup rate of 47 per month for OVER 4.7 years. If the signup rate drops in ANY of those months, the wait will be MUCH LONGER).

In other words, how can he justify his slogan of "why pay retail?" if the wait is 4.7 years for PS2 or 61 years for 42" plasma TV?

QUESTION 2: Originally posted by ycchen
ONE BIG QUESTION to ALL OWNERS:
How do matrix sites resolve the problem of PERMANENT HELPERS who make up at least 80-98% of the list length AT ANY GIVEN TIME? In addition, the absolute numbers of permanent helpers actually INCREASE over time.

That means the lists get longer with less people cycling.

Even if Gotmatrix can survive 4.7 years or 61 years, how can the owner resolve the 80-98% permanent-helpers problem inherited in any matrix scheme. How can he cycle those increasing (in absolute number) helpers in the systems DISREGARDING TIME or SPEED.

[damion]

The biggest thing for a matrix site is to increase the signup rate at an exponential (or almost exponential rate).
If he is getting new people coming in at a constant rate then you would also have to figure in a growth area on your statistics because they will tell their friends and so forth.

The only way to get a true statistical analysis is to project his growth rate over the past few months. I do not know the owner of GotMatrix but I do know that these types of questions came up to me when I ran EZ and the growth rate before the articles, MW, and so forth was exceeding exponential numbers which is why EZ was so successful, but also the same reason why the auto-cycling money idea was not as great as I thought. Let me explain a little better:
In one month I made enough to auto-cycle a lot of people. If there was no growth rate then the funds received from advertising would have cycled a lot higher percentage of people than it did, however, if you maintain a high enough growth rate then you also have to have much more revenue from other cources to maintain a healthy auto-cycle fund.

Without getting too far off track here, maybe the owner of GotMatrix has some statistics on monthly volume for the past few months that you could use to redo your statistical analysis of his site.

Damion

[ycchen]

Damion, thanks for your response. We have this discussion before, so may be we should not repeat it over here diverse this track. I really like to hear what Greg has to say about the statistaics. (Also, the signups in gotmatrix before the mid October is very little, it only start picking up steam because of Christmas spirit. So, I don't think digging into the pass data will help much). The scenerio that I present is already the BEST scenerios in the past 3 months.

I just want to make two points about similarity and different of Ezexpo to all to all other matrices.

1. Different: According to Damion, Ezexpo has the first mover advantage that gave him an unbeliavable advertisement income, which is LARGER than the income from signups! Of course, it only happened in the first few months and quickly die out after more copy cat join the game. So, that's an extra-ordinary case only valid for very short period of time. It won't happen again so it is irrelevant to all the matrices on the market today.

2. Similar: Despite the SPEED or TIME, the matrix system has built-in a problem of 80%-98% permanent helper that is impossible to resolved. So, even if you move at the expomential signup rate, the ratio of helpers will REMAIN unchange, and the absolute number of the helper will continue to INCREASE. I will do a statistics to proof my point later.

[damion]

We have already seen the statistics to prove that point ycchen, but thank you.

I was only making a "small" point that maybe you should also look into the past if you are going to provide statistics for the future - it is the correct way to gather statistics. Without weighing past data, you cannot accurately base the future results.

Damion

[MatrixWatch]

I agree with you Damion. I see that ycchen's reports have a lot of data from the past already figured in though. What ycchen is saying is the the Christmas season presents a statistical "outlier", and this next month (or two) will not match the past months.

[ycchen]

I Agree, and thanks for your suggestion, Damion. It will be great to have the time-series data from March until now. Unfortunately, I only begin to monitor Gotmatrix in October. I am sure Greg will not provide any data to me...:)

My estimation is based on the change between mid October to mid November. I think it is good enough because:

1) The signup actually begin to take off in Mid Oct, so my estimation is FAIR to Gotmatrix because I am showing their BEST performance, not their worst. FYI, before mid Oct, signups are very slow.

2) My objective is to show

a) the waiting period for the last signup is at least 4 years;

b) Gotmatrix has NO ultimate solution to cycle EVERYONE. (permanent helper problem). For this limited objective, the data is more than adequate. ..:)

Now, we just need to wait for Greg's response.

[damion]

I see your point. I was merely pointing out that if GotMatrix stands true with most other larger matrix growth patterns then the statistical data will not mean much compiled this way and let me tell you why.

When you get newcomers, even if it is just a holiday rush, they will tell others that have never seen the idea before and as this pattern increases it will grow. Kind of like the rule of three. You tell 3 people - they each tell 3 etc. The numbers add up quickly thus producing a large growth spurt. Where a lot of the matrix sites are failing right now is because they are not getting new "unique" members. They are trying to run completely on veterans and other other existing users that are never going to tell anyone else.

I do not see why GotMatrix would not give you some statistical data for past months. It would actually be in his best interest to do so because this would bring your estimated wait calculations tremendously if the data is calculated correctly.

Damion

[ycchen]

Thanks for your feedback, Damion

1. The chain-effect you described sounds very similar to 'pyramid' to me...:) One people get 3, and 3 get 9 ...etc. And you hope that it will produce the 'exponential' growth that speed up the process of cycling people. Yes, it does speed up the process of cycling people off the list, however, the speed will not solve the inherited "80-98%" permanent helper problem. The helpers will also growth proportionally, as I indicate in another report on "exponential growth"

2. Frankly speaking, I am speaking, and always will be, from the newbie's standpoint. If newbie has to wait for more than 4.7 years to get their PS2, then this is NOT a business model for them. Yes, I agree with Greg that "business is good" (189 effective signups in one month is pretty good), but it is IRRELEVANT to those who just signup. So, my question for Greg is: Business is good for WHOM? This is an ethical question and so far, ZERO owners can respond to this fundamental question. I thought Greg is willing to tackle this problem, but I guess I am wrong.

3. Greg will not give me data for two reasons (I guess).

(a) Matrix system is built on a myths that everyone will cycle. It is any matrix owner's best interest not to let people know more about how they operate. By compiling statistics and forcast model will make the operation "transparent" to all (especially newbies). Transparency will kill matrix. That's my assumption.

(b) Greg admit himself that he do not keep record of "useless" information. So, I don't think he keeps record of monthly signup rate for each list. He only have aggregate data, but do not keep track of how each list perform on the monthly base. This is another reason who matrix will fail because most owners do not take it as serious business. Let me explain what is a serious business: If you are serious about your business, you will keep track of the statistics about the performance in a more 'scientific way'. This is the only way you know what is wrong with your business, and find a way to improve it. The funny thing is that every owners are working on the 'speed' of the matrix, but do not even bother about how to cycle EVERYONE.

Note: Well, Damion, you seems to care about cycling everyone, unfortunately, you haven't present a feasible solution to the fundamental problem (80-98% permanent helper problem).

[damion]

I am not arguing with you on the cycled ratio - only with the amount of time from a newbies standpoint.

A new person coming into today will cycle fairly quickly (within a few months) if there is an exponential growth on the site. It is only when the site stops growing exponentially that the waiting period gets longer.

This is why I said that it would be beneficial to GotMatrix to provide these statistics if they have them. If they can show an exponential growth (or even a steady growth) then it will throw all your numbers off and at the same time really give people a truly educated analysis.

You are right about the 80-98% cycle rate, however, if a site grows exponentially forever (however unlikely), then no one would ever wait for more than a few months.

Damion

[ycchen]

Damion, I guess you haven't read this report that I did FOR YOU..:)

http://www.matrixwatch.org/forums/showthread.php?postid=8963#post8963

All the answer is in the attached file. Yes, exponential growth in signup rate will speed up the process of cycling off people. However, AT THE SAME TIME, it also produced proportionally much greater number of helpers in an exponential way too. And the matrix will grow so large in such a short time that it will fail almost instantly. Look at Ezexpo? Isn't that the best example of how it fail because of exponential growth?

Okay, let me take up the example in the above file to show you how your solution of "exponential growth" will not work.

For Gotmatrix PS2 list.
At rate of 47/month, the waiting is 4.7 years (current)
At rate of 80/month, the waiting is 3.3 years
At rate of 160/month, the waiting is 2.1 years
At rate of 320/month, the waiting is 1.6 years
At rate of 640/month, the waiting is 1.3 years

Okay, let me make some ridiculous rate just to show you why your solution won't work.

At rate of 10,000/month, the waiting is 6.6 months
At rate of 1,000,000/month, the waiting is 6.0 months
At rate of 1,000,000,000/month, the waiting is 6 months.

CONCLUSION: SPEED IS NOT AN ISSUE, and NEVER IS. As long as matrix cannot CYCLE EVERYONE. The faster it is, the faster it fail. For the PS2 list example, irrespectaive of ANY speed, the last signup will NOT get their free gift in less than 6 months.

Still not convince?

[MatrixWatch]

I see what Damion is saying, however there are a limited amount of people not only in the world, but also on the internet. Even if a matrix site had a customer base that grew exponentially for several years, it would still crash one day.

I also see what ycchen is saying. When you have a sign-up to cycle ratio of 2:1, 25:1, or 50:1, you are going to get longer and longer lists. That is where Damion's idea of autocycling comes in, but autocycling does not work well enough, as was shown at EzExpo. An autocycling fund may rise to become $25,000 dollars, but that money must be applied to either one list, or multiple lists. At best, it only cycles off a few people each and brings a 50-person list to a 40-person list, or a 12-person cycle list to an 8-person cycle list.

Damion's rebuttal to this issue is that if you can get MORE people to sign up EVERY month, MORE than the previous month, then you can get people cycling faster and faster, even though the lists are getting wrong.

But let me tell you what disproves this. GotMatrix has increased their business in the past month, but not on the lists that need the exponential growth ($25 and $50 lists). This shows that new customers will gravitate toward shorter lists, and leave the longer lists alone. The exponential growth that a matrix site needs will not be possible if people are aware of the list lengths. Yet if they are not made aware of the list length at all, then they will become sceptical and not sign up.

The statistical reports that ycchen has relased prove that this very phenomena is happening, and thus the "great" month that GotMatrix just had is apparently the bad news.

[ycchen]

Yes, we have to take "consumer awareness" into account. This awareness will kill any possibility of "exponential take off" that Damion wishes for. It just won't happen because, as WD has said, smart consumers will avoid long lists.

Let me explain the statistics again to echo what WD is saying about the slowing down of the $25 and $50 lists (the two major cash cows of Gotmatrix).

If we compare the "Average Monthly signup rate" (Total signups divided by 9 months since Gotmatrix begin in March) and "X'mas signup rate" (current monthly signup rate).

Let me choose a few 'non-stagnant' lists to explain the tendency.

1. $25: Average ( 596/month) vs. X'mas (27/month)
2. $50: Average (154/month) vs. X'mas (4/month)
3. $100: Average (21/month) vs. (2/month)
4. Vaio Laptop: Average (27/month) vs X'mas (5/month)

We can see all these strong lists have declined significantly, especially the $25 and $50 lists! Why? Because they are just TOO long. The problem with Vaio laptop is that it is both too long and too expensive. So, it slowed down significantly.

5. PS2: Average (49/month) vs. X'mas (47/month)
6. Xobx: Average (58/month) vs. X'mas (30/month)
7. Gameboy: Average (16/month) vs X'mas (15/month)

Here are the 3 exceptional lists that continue to pump cash into Gotmatrix. Their X'mas rate is pretty close to their Average rate, which is unusual because there are also long lists (Total signups: 442, 524, 97) . Even with this extra-ordinary performance of these 3 lists, it is still below the average, and it will continue to fall below average especially after X'mas.

Conclusion:
1. Smart consumers will avoid long lists, which makes exponential growth impossible (WD's point)
2. Misinformed newbies will continue to go for the "popular" and "cheaper" items. Even with continuation of fresh signups from newbies, these popular lists can't even maintain their average signup rate.

Therefore, exponential growth is impossible in reality. Even if it is possible, it did not solve any problems because the Matrix is simply a bad, unjust, and unsustainable business model. It is in fact a typical pyramid scheme. That's why it will fail like all other pyramid schemes.

[damion]

ycchen - I completely understand what you are saying. You are both right and wrong at the same time.

Yes, while the helpers is getting infinately longer each month, if you are experiencing exponential growth every month then you are always taking care of that problem and therefore keeping your cycle time the same. This means that as long as you are growing exponentially each month (in direct proportion to your cycle lengths) then you will always be cycling people in the exact same amount of time.
This does create a problem though as WD said. The shorter lists move quickly and then stagnate as new lists come available. This theory only works if every list is growing exponentially - not just the site as a whole.

As far as your statistical file you did on exponential growth - it is not correct. The exponential growth as I stated would be exponentially based on the cycle rate - this is not how you did it. You only exponentiated each one by 2. This is not exponentiation - it is doubling.
If you want to figure on exponential growth you would have to figure the cycle rate, then go from there. Let me show you by using a cycle rate of 5 (this would leave 80% helper since this is your most used number):
On a cycle of 5 you would need to multiply growth every month by 5. If you start with 10 customers your first month then 2 people would cycle leaving 8 helpers.
You would still have to grow by 5 for every customer though so we will start in Aug. and show:
Aug. 10 customers, 2 cycled
Sept. 50 customers, 10 cycled
Oct. 250 customers, 50 cycled
Nov. 1250 customers, 250 cycled

If you notice, each month, the amount of cycled customers equals the amount of signups for the previous month thus cycling at a rate of one month indefinately. This, of course, only works if that particular list grows this way each month forever. Once the lists stagnates - well, we know what happens then.

Damion

[ycchen]

Okay, just for the fun sake, I build a model based on your idea ..:) In this model, everyone will expected their 'free gift' in one month! Perfect.

Except that at the end of the year you will have:

Total signups: 488,281,250
Cycled: 97,656,250 (perfect!)
Helper: 390,625,000 (Exactly 80% ..:))


You are not serious about building this as your ideal matrix model, do you? This is a very typical pyramid scheme...:D

Do you know why they call it "pyramid"? Just look at the shape of the number, it looks very pyramid to me...:D

[Got Matrix]

Sorry I just now found this post. I wont open up a file from anyone at MW so I will not be reviewing your documentation.

[ycchen]

Originally posted by Got Matrix
Sorry I just now found this post. I wont open up a file from anyone at MW so I will not be reviewing your documentation.

Why? Are you afraid of virus? Well, you can scan the file before open it.

[concerned]

Originally posted by ycchen
Why? Are you afraid of virus? Well, you can scan the file before open it.

He already knows that the information in your report is detrimental to his so called business. If he doesn't respond to it, he can continue to tell his customers that all we do is bash him.

[Got Matrix]

Sorry but I wouldn't trust anyone on this site or a virus scanner to pick something up from it. I don't know who you are, perhaps you're smart enough to write a backdoor program which would ruin me and my site if opened on my computer. I have a strict policy on opening files from people I do not know. You're welcome to turn your pdf into html format and have wd post it for me to see.

[ycchen]

Then, what is the purpose of coming over here if he does not want to respond to any questions? These are not questions from anti-matrix people like me, but also Gotmatrix's members, such as x_shockwave_x .

http://www.matrixwatch.org/forums/showthread.php?postid=9020#post9020

[ycchen]

Originally posted by Got Matrix
Sorry but I wouldn't trust anyone on this site or a virus scanner to pick something up from it. I don't know who you are, perhaps you're smart enough to write a backdoor program which would ruin me and my site if opened on my computer. I have a strict policy on opening files from people I do not know. You're welcome to turn your pdf into html format and have wd post it for me to see.

Greg, you over-estimate my ability, I am flattered...:) Unfortunately, I have zero interest in hacking your website. I only care about newbies who are misled by your "why pay retail?" pyramid scheme.

Can any one help to convert the file into html? I will try it myself. Sigh. ..:(

[damion]

ycchen:
I was merely stating fact about exponential growth. I realize the numbers are outstanding.

GotMatrix:
The reason Adobe Acrobat is so popular is because there are no scripts that can attach themselves to it. It is one of the most secure ways to review information. You said something about turning it into an html page? I could write a vbscript program that would completely format your computer the next time you turned it on and stick it on a website (in html form) where you would never know it. Now, which would you rather look at?
Just something to think about.

Damion

[Got Matrix]

Yes, I know this Damion but I would have to have my security settings screwed up to allow such a page to open.

[squid]

I converted the pdf into html for those interested.

[ycchen]

Thanks squid! Can you convert another file on page 1 as well. There are two files, please do the second one with title:
gotmatrix waiting period & permanent helper.pdf

These two files are the same, except that the second one (above) has extra coloum on 'permanent helper'.

Also, there is another file on the thread below, entitle: gotmatrix profile.pdf. Please convert it and leave it at the same thread. Thanks so much.

http://www.matrixwatch.org/forums/showthread.php?postid=8992#post8992

[MatrixWatch]

Don't convert any more files. It isn't even worth our time.

A PDF is a virus-proof file, and Greg does not want to open it because he doesn't want to have to respond to the issues it raises. Now when his customers ask him, "Hey Greg, did you read the statistics report that proves you are a liar?", he can say, "No, I didn't read it, and don't anybody else download it because it will give your computer a virus".

I must say, this is an ingenius fear tactic. Greg, get real! Even Damion Flynn was willing to open the file, and he is about as computer savvy as they come.

Now, back to the issue. Damion, very thought provoking posts. Thanks for your time here. I think that you have a point about exponential sign ups. If they continue exponentially, then people will cycle out at a normal rate. However, your claim does not take into account the fact that the statistics show that people will not sign up for a long lists, especially the $25 and $50 lists at GotMatrix. The $25 and $50 lists at GotMatrix are a key component of ycchen's statistics. In fact, he is using it as a rebuttal to your claim that exponentialy signups are even a possibility.

So, you have a good point about exponential signups. If an amount of people signup for the matrix lists, relative and proportional to the cycle rate of the lists, then the matrix will work as long as that process continues. The problem? the $25 and $50 lists at GotMatrix prove that their is a threshold that lists come to where people refuse to signup, and the exponential growth is impossible. Thus, your theory of matrix success does not work in the practical world.

[Got Matrix]

Just a question...why GotMatrix? Why not other large sites? Why is everything always aimed towards me?

Also I have a degree in computers and I know what talented programmers are capable of. Yes, I'm aware that .pdf files are generally virus proof, but it's easy enough to spoof a file as a pdf. You can twist things and say that's not why I'm downloading it but then why would I request for you to change it to a form where I would feel safe reviewing it? Your theory doesn't add up WD. Just convert the files and post them on the site and I'll review them and answer accordingly.

[MatrixWatch]

Greg,

Thank you for coming to the site and posting your opinions. I know that things have been "heating up" lately, so I appreciate your resolve.

Now, the reason we are talking about GotMatrix is because we are a consumer-oriented site which aims to bring certain facts to light about the matrix sites that people avoid addressing on other forums, including your own.

Some of your customers have claimed that you dodge questions, and spin the facts the wrong way. So, as a service to your customers, we have released FOUR professionally-detailed statistical reports addressing your site. We have found that what you call a "successful month" actually shows that you matrix site will collapse soon. Your new customers have signed up for shorter lists and have made them just as long as the lists that are losing new signups. Since you are a respeceted matrix owner we have invited you here to share your side of the story-- you haven't.

All you have shared so far is how you refuse to read our reports because of an impossible virus you may contract, a virus that hasn't even worried Damion Flynn-- computer guru extraordinaire.

Your other response to the facts is asking us why we are paying attention your site, yet the person asking most of the questions is one of your own customers (ycchen). In fact, another customer has surfaced with questions, and he is still begging you to answer him. Your customers are the ones brining up the questions, not us.

A few of us "non-customers" are only adding to the dialogue, since there are discussion forums. We figured we would fill the space and pass the time while you launched accusations against us on the other forums. Untrue accusations I might add, the only purpose being to distract people from the real issue at hand-- the math.

Greg, our claim here at MatrixWatch.org is that the matrix sites thrive on misinformation and mis-truths. We have presented actual facts and statistics to you and you will not answer the questions. It only strengthens our standpoint, and helps us convince matrix cusotmers that our claim is correct when applied.

[Got Matrix]

Hello,

Actually ycchen stated he made an order and it is still pending, so he is not a paid customer. Same story with x_shockwave_x. I answered every question that he has sent my way and he is not a paid customer. I do not dodge questions and every customer or potential customer is helped in a timely manner.

So once again you're posting misleading information yet to state that I'm the person misinforming/misleading customers.

Also, you state that people are now signing up for "shorter" list. If this was the case why are they not signing up for list with 5 or 10 people on them? They are signing up for popular items such as the PS2, XBOX, Gameboy Advance SP, etc. These are all list that have been popular since the day they were started. Once again your information is incorrect.

You posted "Greg, our claim here at MatrixWatch.org is that the matrix sites thrive on misinformation and mis-truths. We have presented actual facts and statistics to you and you will not answer the questions. It only strengthens our standpoint, and helps us convince matrix cusotmers that our claim is correct when applied."

Well I see no factual information in any of your post. To be honest ycchen's statistics are based on the assumption of a signup ratio. A signup ratio is just that, an assumption. If you look into any business they start out small and their customer base grows exponentially. We are not doing anything different than your local Walmart. We reach new clients daily and through referrals and advertising our client base will continue to grow and grow keeping our gift lines flowing. Ycchen's states that his statistics leave 80% people uncycled, well everyone cycles in due time as long as new helpers are coming on board. We will continue to reach new customers for the years to come and old and new customers will cycle and receive their gifts in an ample amount of time.

I'm sorry that everyone from MW feels that matrix sites are scams and if you have any suggestions on how to improve the business model I'm open to suggestions. We all know that closing up shop is not the best answer, although I'm sure you'd love to see all sites fail. Unfortunately for you that's not a realistic achievement since new sites will most likely popup in foreign countries where you will have no jurisdiction.

[ycchen]

Greg, have you read the reports? If not, how can we discuss anything? You know that consumers are getting smarter nowsaday, they need more solid arguement. You need to respond to more critical questions seriously. Or else, I am afraid that you won't be able to convince anyone to buy your ebooks.

Misleading tactic such as "why pay retail?" is over, you need to convince newbies BY FACT, not by empty words.

[squid]

I am in the network security field and would rather open a pdf file than visit a web page. If you were really afraid of getting virus from Matrix Watch, you wouldn't even visit this site from your personal computer, but use a public computer from a library or internet cafe to open files that have been uploaded here. Yes, someone could use Camouflage and embedd a virus into an acrobat reader file, but it is easier to hide a trojan in html or office product.

[mercinary]

Pardon my interruption, but this whole thread is obnoxious. It takes some simple high-school level math to figure out that a Matrix is a scam. Your customer base cannot grow exponentially forever, it just simply isn't possible. Matrix sites are masked pyramid schemes. Pyramid schemes are illegal.

Someone should do the math for if every single person in the world signed up for the gotmatrix site, to show how many people would be stranded in the waiting list.

Matrix sites are a scam. This is the bottom line. There is a reason that most sites are failing. There is a reason that sites are getting nailed with lawsuits. You can lie to yourself all that you want, but customers are getting screwed, and you are facilitating that.

And as far as Matrixwatch.org being all over Greg's case, he is lucky that it isn't the better business bureau, or the attorney general, or worse.

Sorry for the outburst here, but to me it just that everything I have stated seems so perfectly clear in my mind.

-Merc

[ycchen]

Originally posted by mercinary
Someone should do the math for if every single person in the world signed up for the gotmatrix site, to show how many people would be stranded in the waiting list.
This is exactly what I did for Gotmatrix. I did two statistical reports and Greg refused to read them because of 'security' reason...:) I think the real reason is that he cannot deny the FACTS in the reports.

Here is what I did, you only need to read these two files on Gotmatrix.

1. A forcast model on 4 popular (non-stagnant) lists (PS2, Xbox, gameboy and 42" plasma TV). This is based on the REAL signup rate of gotmatrix from mid Oct to mid Nov. My conclusion is that: the wait period for the last signup to get his/her free gift is AT LEAST 4 years for PS2, and AT LEAST 60 years for 42" Plasma TV.

Not only that, the waiting period will continue to INCREASE over time. Based on gotmatrix true performance, the forcast model suggest that at the end of March, the wait period for PS2 will look like 6 to 18 years. The wait period for 42" Plasma TV will look like 67 or 195 years.

For details, go to page one of THIS thread and look for a PDF (virus-free) file entitle "gotmatrix waiting period & permanent helper.pdf" (There are two files on page one, look for the second file)

Or download directly: http://www.matrixwatch.org/forums/attachment.php?postid=8939

2. A profile of all the lists at Gotmatrix, including the waiting period of each list. Based on Gotmatrix recent performance (which is consider "good business" in Greg own's words) The shortest wait period is 1.5 years ($1000, cycle of 2) and the longest wait period is 69 years (Vaio Laptop ).

For details, read this virus-free PDF file entitle : gotmatrix profile.pdf at
http://www.matrixwatch.org/forums/showthread.php?postid=8992#post8992

Or download directly :http://www.matrixwatch.org/forums/attachment.php?postid=8992

[mercinary]

I understand what models you did, and I actually already looked at them.

What I was suggesting was doing an absolute best-case scenario for a matrix site (6 billion people sign up this month). It would show that no matter how many people sign up, a huge majority would never cycle. It doesn't really matter if they sign up this week, or next month, or 3 years from now....my point has to do with the percentage of people cycling, not the time it takes to cycle.

Good work on the models by the way.

-Merc

[ycchen]

Originally posted by mercinary
What I was suggesting was doing an absolute best-case scenario for a matrix site (6 billion people sign up this month). It would show that no matter how many people sign up, a huge majority would never cycle. It doesn't really matter if they sign up this week, or next month, or 3 years from now....my point has to do with the percentage of people cycling, not the time it takes to cycle.

I do not want to over sell these reports again ..:D, but all my models (including the one on exponential growth) have one coloum called : permanent helper (that's my redefination of helper/waiting). The idea is similar to what you argue here, I guess.

This is what many of us have been 'preaching' for a long time. Irrespect of TIME and SPEED of any matrices, there will always be at least 80-98% of permanent helper.

Sometime, I called permanent helper as DONOR becaue they will NEVER get their gift in reality. In theory, as long as the lists move, anyone who invest will get their gift eventually (1.5 years or 195 years in the case of Gotmatrix). Of course, then, the limit to the matrix is the world population. If the whole human species signup, at the end of the day, there will still be at least 80% of human being stuck as permanent helper. Well, may be the innovative owners will invite aliens to signup in order to cycle out 80% of the earth people..:D

In reality, as we all know by now, this disguisted pyramid scheme won't last for another 3-6 months! So, if you need to wait for >1 year, it means that your wait is forever.

That is the reason why no body should throw any $$ into any matrix (especially established one) NOW, becuase you will become a real DONOR to the owners and top 2% of any lists.

[mercinary]

I think you stumbled upon the only true way for a matrix to work!!!!!!

Aliens! If we could fool a couple billion aliens into joining a matrix site, then all humans could cycle! Genious!!!!

:D

-Merc

[mjkski]

Or maybe we could get Bill Gates to just throw a few bucks into the Matrix so everyone can cycle. :D Does anyone have his phone number- I would like to run that past him.

[ycchen]

Call Bill Gates! That will work ..:D

Or, we can ask Bush adminstration to give special tax exemption to investment in matrix-sites. Then, all americans who want to avoid tax will pour their money into matrices! Many of these people won't care if they cycled or not because they just don't want to pay tax to the government...:D This is an alternative tax cut proposal.

To archieve that, matrix-site owners should form a lobby group and start lobbying the congress before the tax filing dat in April 2004! :D Since the business is not as good, I believe many owners have plenty of time to get organized...:)

[mikv]

Maybe we can get THE GOVERNATOR here in Cali to add that to his list of things to get accomplished!

[mercinary]

I agree.

Plus, it really sounds like something the Bush administration might bite on.

*chuckle*

-Merc

[ycchen]

See, we are not as 'negative' as what pro-matrix people think..:D Our ideas is actually more 'fundamental' than the ALL matrix owners who only care about SPEED. We care about EVERYONE -- cycled or donors

Any other ideas to solve the root problem of matrices other than aliens, Bill Gates, Tax exemption and Governor Schwarzenegger? ..:D

I have another idea. Let's make matrix into a non-profit 'philanthropy' scheme. The cycled money will be used for charity. To show appreciation, all the donors will receive a T-shirt saying "Why Pay GODmatrix? From www.glodblessyoumatrix.com" :D

Ooops, since Greg refuse to read the reports, I thought we might just braistorm some constructive solution to rescue the matrix-sites...:D

[mercinary]

LOL LOL LOL

Stop...seriously......my stomach hurts from laughing too hard.

-Merc :D

[dwin75]

Wow I've been reading this thread, very interesting, and I came up with an idea for Greg. Since he is so convinced that ycchen's statistics are wrong because they are based on assumptions, lets prove it.

Since he claims 3-7 months, and says it may take shorter or longer, let's give him up to 10 months. I would not want to wait longer, I'd rather just go out and pay full price if it is going to take longer than that.

SO ... I'll sign up for any one of his matrices that cost $50 or less. If it takes me 10 months to cycle then fine. For every month less than 10 it takes to cycle, I'll give Greg $20, so if I cycle in one month Greg gets $180 from me. However for every month longer than 10, greg owes me $20/month.

What do you say Greg? What have you got to loose? If you are so confident we are wrong and you are right, then it's easy money for you.

[concerned]

Originally posted by dwin75
Wow I've been reading this thread, very interesting, and I came up with an idea for Greg. Since he is so convinced that ycchen's statistics are wrong because they are based on assumptions, lets prove it.


Let's not forget that Greg is not willing to view the report and the statistics. What this means is that while Greg is throwing around accusations that ycchen is using ASSUMPTIONS, it is Greg that is using the ASSUMPTION that the statistics are false. He refuses to read them, so how does he know if the data is 100% correct?

[ycchen]

Originally posted by dwin75
SO ... I'll sign up for any one of his matrices that cost $50 or less. If it takes me 10 months to cycle then fine. For every month less than 10 it takes to cycle, I'll give Greg $20, so if I cycle in one month Greg gets $180 from me. However for every month longer than 10, greg owes me $20/month.
Count me in! I will double the investment. Remember, you can buy the same worthless ebooks twice to get 2 free spot on the list. ..:D

Okay, here is a serious deal. I am more generous than you, dwin75. I will give Greg 100 months (8 years and 4 months) to cycle me at $25 list. If I cycled in first month, I will give Greg $1000US dollars. For any addition month, I will deduct $10. So, if I cycled in 8 years and 4 months, we will get even, and he will has to pay me $25 (free gift!). If the waiting period go beyond 8 years & 4 months, he will have to pay me $10 for the delay of each month.

According to gotmatrix's own statistical fact, it will take > 20 years to be cycled as a new signup at $25 list. So, there is a good chance I will make $2000+ from Greg at the end of 20+ years. ..:D

Well, if I cycle in 7 months (the maximum waiting time stated at Gotmatrix FAQ), I will pay Greg $930! We can sign a contract if he dares to bet!

[mikv]

I don't know Gotmatrix, you might want to take them up on these bets, it could help you autocycle one or two people! Maybe even give you some advertising funds so your customers don't have to go broke trying to cycle themselves.

[concerned]

Ycchen

I have a bit of a request. I'm sure if you have some of this info saved, it shouldn't be too much work. These reports have been fine, but I think there is another one that would really show newbies what they are in for.

You have already calculated how much money they have taken in. Now, can you calculate how much their liabilities are? Then can you compare the two?

All you have to do is take the number of people in each line and multiply it by the promised payout. I'm sure that since they have taken in $200k+ that their liabilities are about $20 million or something like that.

[Got Matrix]

Considering you can automatically cycle yourself 1 spot on the $25 list I'll take up your bet. Please make that check payable to Got Matrix and I'll email you the address once you complete your side of the deal. Thanks for the quick and easy $1000.

[concerned]

Originally posted by Got Matrix
Considering you can automatically cycle yourself 1 spot on the $25 list I'll take up your bet. Please make that check payable to Got Matrix and I'll email you the address once you complete your side of the deal. Thanks for the quick and easy $1000.

All ycchen or dwin would have to do is sign up for like 10 spots. You get $1000 for the first spot, ycchen or dwin gets like $40,000 for the other spots.

[ycchen]

Originally posted by Got Matrix
Considering you can automatically cycle yourself 1 spot on the $25 list I'll take up your bet. Please make that check payable to Got Matrix and I'll email you the address once you complete your side of the deal. Thanks for the quick and easy $1000.

I see that you have one trick on $25 list that I overlook...:D Greg has this new "innovative" way to speed up $25 list (why only $25 list?) if you signup to "iFriend" (http://orders.webpower.com/ifriends/vpnamain.htm ) for a $1. You have to email your registration information to Greg in order to qualify for this ONE time instant cycle deal. Too bad that it only apply to the cheapest list, it would be great if it apply to all the lists. Gotmatrix members should ask Greg to extend this (cycle of 1) deal to every lists. Then, it will be a true X'mas spirit! Greg, think about this proposal becaue it will really make your member happy..:D

Of course, this is another trick that make buyer feel 'alive' again. Everyone who got stuck for months suddently cycle ONCE and earn ($25- $15 -$1) = $9.00! Wow, what an incentive :D Remember there are 3899 signups stuck in the $25 list, and most people has 20 - 100 or more signups. So, I am not sure if $9/person will bring any joy to the helpers. In addtion, what is the consequence of joining 'iFriend', I am not too sure. What do Greg has to gain from 'iFriend'? I am not sure either.

We will see if his trick works after I release an updated report on the $25 list on Dec. 15.

[dwin75]

$9.00? does iFriends give you that money as a promotional incentive so you send people their way, or are you taking a small loss? Regardless, it is not the point, and the last thing I need is another useless account with a website for lonely people.

The whole point of the bet was to prove that for someone who desires cheap electronics, as you so heavily promote, that it would take years to get. If you have a degree in computers as you say you do, then you obviously must have reasonable mathematical knowledge. With that, you must realize that the wait time increases exponentially. Yet you have not updated your FAQ, particularly the one about how long it takes to get you item since day one, have you?

So, change your FAQ to say average matrices <b>currently</b> take 1 to 60 years and we'll be happy. No auto-cyle, lonely people promotions or investment scams are really going to make much difference to that. You can't create something out of nothing.

Some people seem to claim you are an "honest" site owner, well I beg to differ.